Do I ship it?

GamesSolitaireSolitaire + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Solitaire game?

Solitaire + Modern

Only 12 developers shipped a Modern-Day Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Slash Cash, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $210 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Solitaire + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Solitaire + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 28
Announced 9
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Solitaire
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 62% positive over 32 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $1.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Solitaire with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.3k · 9 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $2.3k · 3 announced
  3. + ManagementFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 17 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  5. + MahjongFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 6 announced
  6. + RomanceFair11 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  7. + CraftingFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationFair56 devs · median $718 · 46 announced
  9. + FantasyFair48 devs · median $479 · 39 announced
  10. + TacticalFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  11. + SportsFair14 devs · median $479 · 5 announced
  12. + Turn-Based CombatFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 77 pairs on the Solitaire page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Otoko Cross: Pretty Boys Klondike Solitaire older $6.99 135 86% 4.1k $28k (exactly $28,310) Eastasiasoft Limited
Otoko Cross: Pretty Boys Mahjong Solitaire older $6.99 132 86% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,680) Eastasiasoft Limited
Knotwords older $11.99 54 90% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Zach Gage, Jack Schlesinger
Ultimate Solitaire Collection older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) eSolutions
SUBARACITY older $4.99 26 61% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) ESQUADRA,inc.
CHACAL older $3.99 16 68% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Pernich Media
Casino Slot Machines older $1.99 22 45% 660 $1.3k (exactly $1,313) Boogygames Studios
Slash Cash $3.99 10 30% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) AnythingGames
Vlobs older $3.99 10 90% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Lost Minds
Mahjong Expedition $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) COSO
Find The Flaw $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) XSGames
Xenogen $7.49 4 100% 120 $899 (exactly $899) Sylph
Solitaire Nights $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) George Griffin
English Vocab Rush $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Binary Logic Games
回南天 Damp Southern Days $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) 昏暗骑士
Probability Contemplation $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) James H. Van der Meulen
Vice Versa $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fishagon LLC
LiveStream Era $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 快乐蜗牛工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.