Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Modern

Of 24 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 37 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $8.8k → $2.7k → $2.5k → $298 → $899 → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,722)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 68
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,203 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
Power to the People older $14.99 472 79% 14k $212k (exactly $212,258) Rhombico Games
ShantyTown $14.99 415 98% 12k $187k (exactly $186,626) Erik Rempen
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
After the Collapse older $14.99 201 77% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Anarkis Gaming
Political Arena · EA $14.99 69 73% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Wayside Press
Boppio older $9.99 90 52% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Boppy Games, LLC
Elsie older $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Knight Shift Games
Silicon City older $19.99 40 62% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Polycorne
SKY THE SCRAPER $11.99 44 100% 1.3k $16k (exactly $15,827) Ryo Kobuchi
Speed Demons 2 $14.99 26 92% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Radiangames
Oil Refinery - The Simulation $14.99 18 38% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Polygon Art
Code Tycoon $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Mennen Games
One Armed Bandit $4.99 17 88% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Gral
Sound Syndicate $19.00 3 100% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,710) NiTToN
Grid Warriors: Battles $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Junjo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.