Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Medieval

Of 289 developers who shipped a Medieval Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 547 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×329 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 547 games are announced against 164 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 547 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 289
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $3.8k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $2.5k → $1.7k → $628 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 289
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $207k (exactly $206,896)
Developers, 2 yr 289
Released games 749
Announced 547
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 18,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 143 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 547 games are announced against 164 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
The Banner Saga 2 older $24.99 3,186 89% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,388,544) Stoic
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
BRAVELY DEFAULT FLYING FAIRY HD Remaster $39.99 803 91% 24k $963k (exactly $963,359) Square Enix, Cattle Call Inc.
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.