Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Match 3

Only 18 developers shipped a Match 3 Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Titanium Court, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×783 the market median. Revenue is up 4765% on the market; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 4765% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $119 → $719 → $0 → $15k → $4.9k (still earning) → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,573)
Top 5% $492k (exactly $491,972)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 59
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4765% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Match 3; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Puzzle, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Surreal, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,614 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
ANTHEM#9 $14.99 125 87% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) koeda
Fantasy Match -Make a H match with cute young woman- older $7.99 203 79% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,659) 魔界あ号営業所
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司
Merge & Blade older $9.99 121 76% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Magic Cube
XXZ: XXL older $5.99 200 80% 6.0k $36k (exactly $35,940) L. Stotch
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 1 older $8.99 90 70% 2.7k $24k (exactly $24,273) rokaplay
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Glamour Kaleidoscope $7.99 90 75% 2.7k $22k (exactly $21,573) Cup Dragon
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Match! The 12 CZ Wars $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) CorvusCorax Studio
大荒消劫录 $3.99 10 50% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) 辰酉游戏
Velvet $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Gambula Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.