Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Martial Arts

Of 28 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×713 the market median. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $380k → $307k → $32k → $3.0k → $26k → $47k → $45k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $13k (exactly $13,495)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,830)
Top 5% $448k (exactly $447,752)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 75
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 11,678 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
梦江湖 older $19.99 1,349 50% 40k $809k (exactly $808,995) 侠客工作室
英雄群侠传II older $11.99 2,103 88% 63k $756k (exactly $756,449) 熊窝dodox
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
万象群侠传 $8.99 853 85% 26k $230k (exactly $230,054) 火天工作室
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster $29.99 52 67% 1.6k $47k (exactly $46,784) ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.