Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Souls-like?

Souls-like + Martial Arts

Of 21 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×3293 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 45 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 45 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $8.2k → $97k → $60k → $450 → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 66
Announced 45
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 17,829 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018 · $37M Nine Sols 2024 · $36M Sifu 2023 · $26M Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty 2023 · $25M BIOMUTANT 2021 · $16M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty older $39.99 20,873 49% 626k $25M (exactly $25,041,338) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
BIOMUTANT older $39.99 13,169 67% 395k $16M (exactly $15,798,849) Experiment 101
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
The Wind Road older $29.99 5,920 69% 178k $5.3M (exactly $5,326,224) 甘肃嘉元数字科技有限公司
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
Weird RPG 2 $9.99 795 92% 24k $238k (exactly $238,262) yuzhen
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games
小小无常 Little Wu Chang $12.99 36 88% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) 小小无常游戏工作室
Dustless $5.99 39 71% 1.2k $7.0k (exactly $7,008) 神刀之死
Renxia $9.99 10 60% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) IcarusStudio
Blade Abyss $5.99 15 73% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) KungFolio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.