Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Souls-like?

Souls-like + Magic

Of 91 developers who shipped a Magic Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 227 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1085 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 227 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 227 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $2.7k → $1.1k → $54k → $537 → $1.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,036)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 277
Announced 227
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 50,404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 227 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lords of the Fallen older $29.99 37,902 68% 1.1M $34M (exactly $34,100,429) CI Games
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
GreedFall older $34.99 18,460 75% 554k $19M (exactly $19,377,462) Spiders
Avowed $49.99 12,653 76% 380k $19M (exactly $18,975,704) Obsidian Entertainment
Lords Of The Fallen™ 2014 older $29.99 13,385 58% 402k $12M (exactly $12,042,484) CI Games, Deck 13
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Little Witch Nobeta older $24.99 9,362 84% 281k $7.0M (exactly $7,018,691) Pupuya Games
KINGDOM HEARTS III + Re Mind (DLC) older $59.99 2,535 89% 76k $4.6M (exactly $4,562,240) Square Enix
Eastern Exorcist older $17.99 6,099 84% 183k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,630) Wildfire Game(无锡野火数字科技有限公司)
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Dinoblade $19.99 2,420 90% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) Team Spino LLC
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.