Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Magic

Of 161 developers who shipped a Magic Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 274 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1890 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 274 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 274 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $3.2k → $4.8k → $4.3k → $16k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,498)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,362)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 479
Announced 274
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, JRPG
Price point
$11.00 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.00.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 70,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 274 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
CRISIS CORE –FINAL FANTASY VII– REUNION older $49.99 6,949 89% 208k $10M (exactly $10,421,415) Square Enix, TOSE CO., LTD.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 15,395 92% 462k $9.2M (exactly $9,232,382) Beamdog
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Dungeons & Dragons Neverwinter Nights 2: Enhanced Edition $29.99 1,372 47% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,388) Aspyr Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.