Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Lovecraftian

Of 22 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $690; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $310k → $50k → $9.9k → $6.9k → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $683 (exactly $683)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,084)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $135,532)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 50
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 8,645 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $690, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $690. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery 2024 · $3.6M Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager 2021 · $2.4M BLACK SOULS II 2025 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Stirring Abyss older $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Sleepy Sentry, K-Project
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Whispers of the Eyeless $19.99 226 74% 6.8k $136k (exactly $135,532) Venris, Evil Gingerbread Studio
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz
Roguecraft DX $11.99 39 92% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Badger Punch Games
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games
Herogue $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) 巴豆肥工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.