Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Souls-like?

Souls-like + Lovecraftian

Only 17 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hell is Us, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4284 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $76k → $6.1k → $20k → $18k → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $4.9k (exactly $4,895)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,580)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 68
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 17,952 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.9k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.9k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Hellpoint older $34.99 2,582 76% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,325) Cradle Games
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
Eldest Souls older $19.99 3,125 76% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,062) Fallen Flag Studio
Fade to Silence older $29.99 1,032 62% 31k $928k (exactly $928,490) Black Forest Games
Katanaut $17.99 484 88% 15k $261k (exactly $261,215) Voidmaw
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Cafe DReAMLAND $12.99 99 93% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,580) めとこ
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Dead Wells: The Devil Fragment $14.99 40 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Echo7Project
The Shaman's Ark $9.99 47 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Amortiz Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.