Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Souls-like?

Souls-like + Loot

Of 40 developers who shipped a Loot Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $28k, ×19 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×13720 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 67 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $6.3k → $9.3k → $65k → $7.2k → $28k (still earning) → $38k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,182)
Median $28k (exactly $27,881)
Top 25% $420k (exactly $419,570)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $20,552,061)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 84
Announced 67
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Loot; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, RPG
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 223,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $28k, 1 in 4 over $410k, 1 in 20 over $20M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 5 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M Witchfire 2024 · EA · $21M Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition 2015 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Godfall Ultimate Edition older $39.99 1,707 63% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,047,888) Counterplay Games Inc
FlyKnight $5.99 10,432 96% 313k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,630) Wabbaboy
Achilles: Legends Untold older $24.99 2,149 77% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,105) Dark Point Games
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Meta Ghost: Breaking Show $17.99 1,497 72% 45k $808k (exactly $807,931) Scarecrow Studio
Dimraeth · EA $21.99 889 80% 27k $586k (exactly $586,473) Mudtek
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
Heretical · EA $14.99 933 84% 28k $420k (exactly $419,570) Three Swords Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.