Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Logic game?

Logic + Underground

Of 24 developers who shipped an Underground Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×41 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 35 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $22k → $2.9k → $1.1k → $479 → $598 → $4.6k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $955 (exactly $955)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,267)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,502)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 64
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 438 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $960, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Tunnet older $5.99 699 94% 21k $126k (exactly $125,610) puzzled_squid
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
The Long Gate older $19.99 39 79% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) David Shaw
Roody:2d · EA older $14.99 48 97% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) redinator2000
Take Notes $6.99 93 96% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,502) Stoneware Game Studio
Dungeon Divers older $4.99 103 78% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) Wilson The Ball
The soldier in the mine older $4.99 91 52% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Club Soko $13.99 18 100% 540 $7.6k (exactly $7,555) Miracle Tea
Blockmind · EA $1.99 115 78% 3.5k $6.9k (exactly $6,866) Quacky Games
Subsequence $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Zoemi Games
Metro Architect · EA $9.90 11 54% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,267) Northern21 Studio
HomeNaut $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Origami Sword
Gnomes Garden: Black Stones $14.99 4 100% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) 8floor ltd
Portal Walk $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Art&Fact
DEDALO - Escape Room Adventure $5.99 9 55% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) M9 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.