Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Time Travel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time-Travel Logic game?

Logic + Time Travel

Of 35 developers who shipped a Time-Travel Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×248 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 37 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Time Travel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.6k → $898 → $12k → $959 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Time Travel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,935)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $117,741)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 75
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Time Travel
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $9.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Gardens Between older $19.99 2,362 93% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) The Voxel Agents
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
The Holy Gosh Darn $19.99 276 96% 8.3k $166k (exactly $165,517) Perfectly Paranormal
Rail of Möbius older $12.99 359 93% 11k $140k (exactly $139,902) PHOSEPO
Space Accident VR $16.99 231 82% 6.9k $118k (exactly $117,741) VR-WRG
Between Time: Escape Room older $9.99 326 80% 9.8k $98k (exactly $97,702) mc2games
Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room $12.99 191 81% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,433) mc2games
Time Lock VR 2 older $12.99 170 88% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) WR-VRG
Dofamine VR $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) VR-WRG
Loophole $9.99 154 99% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Levi Pinkert
Decide 4 God $29.99 49 93% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Miracle Moon
Temple of the Green Moon $14.99 94 75% 2.8k $42k (exactly $42,272) OLKON GAMES
火起雪中寺 $10.99 59 77% 1.8k $19k (exactly $19,452) 江湖奇事录
Breadbox $11.99 34 97% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) Bitfall
TEAM PANIC $3.99 83 62% 2.5k $9.9k (exactly $9,935) Furko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.