Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Logic game?

Logic + Supernatural

Of 76 developers who shipped a Supernatural Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $210. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 71 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 71 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.4k → $628 → $9.9k → $419 → $748 (still earning) → $838 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $153,232)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 156
Announced 71
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,696 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Escape: Malice older $7.99 815 17% 24k $195k (exactly $195,356) Nimbus Games
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
The Sekimeiya: Spun Glass older $14.99 270 85% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Trinitite Team
I'm on Observation Duty 4 older $4.99 787 96% 24k $118k (exactly $117,814) Notovia
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Dream Cage $7.99 298 63% 8.9k $71k (exactly $71,431) Hitori De Productions
Ire: A Prologue $19.99 77 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) ProbablyMonsters
Temple of the Green Moon $14.99 94 75% 2.8k $42k (exactly $42,272) OLKON GAMES
Rehaunted $7.99 172 66% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) Cauchemar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.