Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Puzzle game?

Logic + Puzzle

Of 1,635 developers who shipped a Logic Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,740 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×4.5 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 1,740 games are announced against 972 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 1,740 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,635
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.3k → $839 → $898 → $718 → $450 → $598 (still earning) → $201 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,635
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 5% $67k (exactly $66,533)
Developers, 2 yr 1,635
Released games 5,755
Announced 1,740
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Logic, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 60,801 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $66k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 935 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,740 games are announced against 972 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
A Little to the Left older $14.99 16,885 91% 507k $7.6M (exactly $7,593,184) Max Inferno
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
shapez older $9.99 14,252 96% 428k $4.3M (exactly $4,271,324) Tobias Springer
Is This Seat Taken? $9.99 9,127 97% 274k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,362) Poti Poti Studio
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Train45 $10.99 3,823 97% 115k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) Elniko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.