Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Logic game?

Logic + Psychological

Of 122 developers who shipped a Psychological Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 145 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 145 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 145 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $2.1k → $1.3k → $838 → $359 → $2.2k → $959 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 5% $44k (exactly $44,085)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 242
Announced 145
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Investigation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,827 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $840, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 145 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demons' Timeline $10.99 1,046 97% 31k $345k (exactly $344,866) DigitalCats
CaseCracker2 older $11.99 759 90% 23k $273k (exactly $273,012) BlackRobe
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
I'm on Observation Duty 5 older $9.99 775 96% 23k $232k (exactly $232,268) Notovia
Escape: Malice older $7.99 815 17% 24k $195k (exactly $195,356) Nimbus Games
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Left Alone older $6.99 592 74% 18k $124k (exactly $124,142) SpeedTutor
The Sekimeiya: Spun Glass older $14.99 270 85% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Trinitite Team
Heavy Burden older $11.99 334 85% 10k $120k (exactly $120,140) Whale Rock Games
I'm on Observation Duty 4 older $4.99 787 96% 24k $118k (exactly $117,814) Notovia
Gensokyo:Presumption of Guilt~Pansies Before Dawn $14.99 250 92% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) 戏壤游戏(Xirang Games)
İblis3:Phenomena $12.99 252 56% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bulut ULU
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Ire: A Prologue $19.99 77 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) ProbablyMonsters
看不见的我们 $6.99 213 92% 6.4k $45k (exactly $44,666) MYSTERY CROWN, 火蜥蜴文化
Decide 4 God $29.99 49 93% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Miracle Moon
PAGER $9.99 139 88% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) bilge
Paper Kite: Threads of Longing $9.99 138 94% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) 依露琳(武汉)品牌管理有限公司, 黎羽游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.