Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Logic game?

Logic + Medieval

Of 81 developers who shipped a Medieval Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×788 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 97 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 97 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $599 → $839 → $1.9k → $1.1k → $899 → $748 (still earning) → $838 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,126)
Top 5% $375k (exactly $374,507)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 243
Announced 97
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,407 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Alchemy Factory $17.99 2,529 87% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) D5 Copperhead
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
The House of Da Vinci 2 older $19.99 2,051 90% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Blue Brain Games
The Artisan of Glimmith $12.99 2,513 97% 75k $979k (exactly $979,316) Lunarch Studios
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
Europa Universalis III Complete older $14.99 1,372 85% 41k $617k (exactly $616,988) Paradox Development Studio
GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) older $9.99 1,266 54% 38k $379k (exactly $379,420) CD PROJEKT RED
City Tales - Medieval Era $22.99 543 90% 16k $375k (exactly $374,507) Irregular Shapes
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens $14.99 179 95% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Mushreb Games
Alchemist: Journey of the Soul $11.99 159 83% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) OnSkull Games
SkyShard: City Battler · EA $14.99 106 97% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) ItsBen321
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.