Do I ship it?

Games › Logic › Logic + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Logic game?

Logic + Match 3

Of 60 developers who shipped a Match 3 Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 32 developers shipped in the last year and 41 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 41 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $300 → $719 → $1.1k → $299 → $179 → $208 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 5% $5.9k (exactly $5,876)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 330
Announced 41
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Logic, Match 3; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Point & Click, Score Attack
Price point
$4.49 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.49.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $5.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

LOLLIPOP! 2021 · $197k Sagrada 2020 · $95k Purino Party 2016 · $90k PumPum 2022 · $83k Gems of the Aztecs 2016 · $46k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Sagrada older $9.99 317 94% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) Dire Wolf
Purino Party older $11.99 249 66% 7.5k $90k (exactly $89,565) Frontwing
PumPum older $3.99 693 74% 21k $83k (exactly $82,952) Shmoops Games
Gems of the Aztecs older $14.99 103 78% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Wellore
Minesweeper: Collector older $7.99 132 88% 4.0k $32k (exactly $31,640) Anton Kryukov
Minesweeper Collector 2 older $9.99 97 89% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Anton Kryukov
LOLLIPOP: SUMMER! older $4.99 156 54% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) TheBoys, Hijiri Yuzuki
Project: Sword Art older $4.99 124 50% 3.7k $19k (exactly $18,563) 430Games, BOA
Asian Riddles older $14.99 40 65% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Creobit
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
Times Trials $11.99 20 100% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) Arc-Fy
Wide Slash Hero $13.99 14 92% 420 $5.9k (exactly $5,876) CelBranch
Magatch $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Avalon Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $14.99 11 90% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Anawiki Games
Project: Stellar Girls $4.99 32 46% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) 430Games
Spire Blast $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Orbital Knight
Zooika $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Graphic Reality
Macro Data Refinement Simulator $4.99 18 77% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Macro Data Refinement Dept
Popcorn Fever $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Yunicorn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.