Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Roguelike?

Roguelike + LGBTQ+

Of 30 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $28k, ×59 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is up 1320% on the market; 43 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1320% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $2.1k → $8.8k → $418 → $37k → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Median $28k (exactly $27,890)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,162)
Top 5% $743k (exactly $743,405)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 62
Announced 43
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1320% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action Roguelike, Perma Death
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 120,678 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.8k, median $28k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.8k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! older $19.99 1,492 92% 45k $895k (exactly $894,752) The Men Who Wear Many Hats
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Resist the succubus—The end of the female Knight older $16.99 1,370 74% 41k $698k (exactly $698,289) BoRoBoRoGame
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Omega Labyrinth Life older $59.99 263 64% 7.9k $473k (exactly $473,321) Matrix
Cursed Words: The Word Game That Isn't $14.99 698 95% 21k $314k (exactly $313,891) Buried Things
Last Devil older $10.99 775 76% 23k $256k (exactly $255,518) Sand Traveler, ado
Gray Haven : Witch's Garden $21.99 319 76% 9.6k $210k (exactly $210,444) NINEHECTARE
Battle Suit Aces $19.99 347 90% 10k $208k (exactly $208,096) Trinket Studios
BroomSweeper $17.99 193 75% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) BandsWithLegends
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Nakara $9.99 310 91% 9.3k $93k (exactly $92,907) R3dspike

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.