Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG Survival game?

JRPG + Survival

Of 26 developers who shipped a JRPG Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×419 the market median. Revenue is up 465% on the market; 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 465% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $449 → $92k → $3.4k → $2.6k → $1.9k → $5.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,074)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 95
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 465% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,796 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom older $59.99 8,100 82% 243k $15M (exactly $14,577,570) LEVEL5 Inc.
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 older $49.99 6,888 92% 207k $10M (exactly $10,329,934) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning older $59.99 650 77% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS older $27.99 715 90% 21k $600k (exactly $600,386) Square Enix
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Claire's Quest: GOLD · EA older $19.99 562 85% 17k $337k (exactly $337,031) Dystopian Project
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
Rust of Steel $10.99 67 65% 2.0k $22k (exactly $22,090) Fortress13 Game Studio
Service with a Shotgun $6.70 93 94% 2.8k $19k (exactly $18,693) Nolyn Vansyckle
Three Kingdoms Part One: Battle of Zhuo County $14.99 30 60% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) JiMoYou
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works
THE GENERAL SAGA $9.99 27 51% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) peakvox, O-TWO inc.
The Choices Of Priori · EA $8.99 23 95% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) Nano0

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.