Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG JRPG?

JRPG + Strategy RPG

Of 126 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1071 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 204 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 204 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.8k → $21k → $21k → $15k → $5.8k → $4.8k → $30k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,764)
Top 5% $672k (exactly $672,481)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 425
Announced 204
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 40,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.