Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG Sports game?

JRPG + Sports

Only 12 developers shipped a JRPG Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×37380 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 9 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $236k → $44k
Outcomes for JRPG + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,398)
Top 25% $594k (exactly $593,901)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,474,646)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 15,451 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $590k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M Beastieball 2024 · EA · $1.1M CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS 2026 · $594k Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX 2025 · $519k 3dSen PC 2025 · $236k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio
Lessons with Chii-chan older $19.99 157 63% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) Orcsoft
The Demon Lord is New in Town! older $24.99 119 70% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Daijyobi Institute
Welcome to the Adventurer Inn! older $19.99 94 58% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) peperoncino
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels $8.99 163 92% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) Tora Creatives
NEOGEO POCKET COLOR SELECTION Vol.2 older $39.99 30 80% 900 $36k (exactly $35,991) SNK CORPORATION, Code Mystics
Reel Fishing: Days of Summer $29.99 6 83% 180 $5.4k (exactly $5,398) Tachyon Inc., Natsume Inc.
Angel Club $6.99 20 65% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) イルカのヒレ
Cricket Management Tycoon $9.99 11 81% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Joynix Games
Olympic Snow Girl $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Tarnaki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.