Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation JRPG?

JRPG + Simulation

Of 146 developers who shipped a Simulation JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 183 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×516 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 183 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 183 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $19k → $9.3k → $25k → $21k → $19k → $17k (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Median $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,346)
Top 5% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 561
Announced 183
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dating Sim, Adventure
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.1k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.1k. 6 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona® 5 Strikers older $59.99 12,864 88% 386k $23M (exactly $23,151,341) ATLUS
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Summer Memories older $19.99 24,113 92% 723k $14M (exactly $14,460,566) Dojin Otome
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Winter Memories older $19.99 10,365 97% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,215,890) Dojin Otome
Tactics Ogre: Reborn older $49.99 4,049 72% 121k $6.1M (exactly $6,072,285) Square Enix
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse $24.99 2,169 95% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) Square Enix
The Censor DX Edition $17.99 1,467 82% 44k $792k (exactly $791,740) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.