Should I ship a JRPG Sandbox?
JRPG + Sandbox
Only 13 developers shipped a JRPG Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Elin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $54k, ×86 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×8027 the market median. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $7.7k (exactly $7,701) |
|---|---|
| Median | $54k (exactly $54,315) |
| Top 25% | $324k (exactly $323,838) |
| Top 5% | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 59 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG, Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Agriculture
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 12,524 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $7.8k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019 · $25M 
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 2019 · $10M 
Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M 
HARVESTELLA 2022 · $3.7M 
Way of the Samurai 4 2015 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 | older | $49.99 | 6,888 92% | 207k | $10M (exactly $10,329,934) | Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
| | HARVESTELLA | older | $59.99 | 2,071 77% | 62k | $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) | Square Enix |
| | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | The Censor DX Edition | $17.99 | 1,467 82% | 44k | $792k (exactly $791,740) | Tiramisu, Big S Studio | |
 | Welcome to Elderfield | $17.99 | 1,334 87% | 40k | $720k (exactly $719,960) | Chris Cote | |
 | DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS | older | $27.99 | 715 90% | 21k | $600k (exactly $600,386) | Square Enix |
 | Troublemaker | older | $19.99 | 938 89% | 28k | $563k (exactly $562,519) | Gamecom Team |
 | Way of the Samurai 3 | older | $19.99 | 871 73% | 26k | $522k (exactly $522,339) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | One Lonely Outpost | $19.99 | 540 58% | 16k | $324k (exactly $323,838) | indie.io | |
 | Summer Beach | $24.99 | 181 66% | 5.4k | $136k (exactly $135,696) | Sakura Cat | |
 | Echoes of the Town | $14.99 | 122 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $54,863) | Taizai Games | |
 | Novice Dungeon Master | · EA | $11.99 | 151 88% | 4.5k | $54k (exactly $54,315) | LazyCnD |
 | Orgasm Lab Simulator 💦🍌 | $14.99 | 119 69% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | BanzaiProject | |
 | Naughty Tales of Rabbits - A Cuckold RPG | $9.99 | 75 88% | 2.3k | $22k (exactly $22,478) | Hyanmaru Games | |
 | 再上一层 | $1.99 | 129 87% | 3.9k | $7.7k (exactly $7,701) | 艾斯尼斯 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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