Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG RPG?

JRPG + RPG

Of 985 developers who shipped a JRPG RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,510 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1071 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 1,510 games are announced against 552 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 1,510 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 985
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.5k → $11k → $7.0k → $4.8k → $8.4k → $8.6k → $6.0k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 985
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,980)
Top 5% $672k (exactly $672,481)
Developers, 2 yr 985
Released games 3,991
Announced 1,510
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 447,070 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 632 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,510 games are announced against 552 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.