Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death JRPG?

JRPG + Perma Death

Only 11 developers shipped a Perma Death JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Elin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×8027 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 45.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $92k → $209k → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $29k (exactly $28,781)
Top 25% $810k (exactly $809,676)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 39
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Perma Death
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 13,843 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $29k, 1 in 4 over $800k, 1 in 20 over $5.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Aethermancer 2025 · EA · $2.0M Dark Deity 2021 · $2.0M Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M Dice Gambit 2025 · $810k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Dark Deity older $24.99 2,652 72% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,988,204) Sword & Axe LLC
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
One Way Heroics older $3.49 3,503 94% 105k $367k (exactly $366,764) Smoking WOLF
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Tyrant's Blessing older $19.99 291 72% 8.7k $175k (exactly $174,513) Mercury Game Studio
Lost:Antinomy older $2.99 1,042 88% 31k $93k (exactly $93,467) IMaiIna
Letalis $14.99 64 95% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Monkiato
Throne Requiem $19.99 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Michael Richard Lannon
Tower of Gand $5.99 5 60% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Toihaus
Uncanny Valley: Le Petit Morte $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Chris King
Cogfall $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Nodding Panda Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.