Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Party-Based RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party-Based RPG JRPG?

JRPG + Party-Based RPG

Of 251 developers who shipped a Party-Based RPG JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 431 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2112 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 431 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 431 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Party-Based RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 251
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $5.4k → $4.8k → $3.3k → $4.8k → $4.8k → $11k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Party-Based RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 251
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583)
Developers, 2 yr 251
Released games 926
Announced 431
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 301,721 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 167 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 431 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE 2022 · $52M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake $59.99 4,010 75% 120k $7.2M (exactly $7,216,797) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.