Should I ship a Match 3 JRPG?
JRPG + Match 3
Only 5 developers shipped a Match 3 JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Glamour Kaleidoscope, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.9k against a market of $630. 4 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.9k (exactly $5,876) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) |
| Top 5% | $22k (exactly $21,573) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 5 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 4 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG, Match 3
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 83,568 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 4 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Mirror 2018 · $4.3M 
ISEKAI QUEST 2020 · $440k 
Wish 2020 · $279k 
H-Isekai Loves 2022 · $116k 
Hero Emblems II 2024 · $92k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mirror | older | $1.99 | 72,623 96% | 2.2M | $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) | KAGAMI WORKS |
| | ISEKAI QUEST | older | $3.99 | 3,679 85% | 110k | $440k (exactly $440,376) | Studio Ginkgo |
| | Wish | older | $2.99 | 3,115 89% | 93k | $279k (exactly $279,416) | Momentum Games |
| | H-Isekai Loves | older | $2.99 | 1,292 84% | 39k | $116k (exactly $115,892) | G-Blood |
| | Hero Emblems II | older | $11.99 | 255 58% | 7.7k | $92k (exactly $91,724) | HeatPot Games |
 | NALOGI | older | $1.99 | 1,515 78% | 45k | $90k (exactly $90,446) | CUTE ANIME GIRLS |
 | Fantasy Match -Make a H match with cute young woman- | older | $7.99 | 203 79% | 6.1k | $49k (exactly $48,659) | 魔界あ号営業所 |
 | Failed Adventurer | older | $4.99 | 226 81% | 6.8k | $34k (exactly $33,832) | Srloop |
 | WISH - Paradise High | older | $1.99 | 557 77% | 17k | $33k (exactly $33,253) | Momentum Games |
 | Ciel Fledge: A Daughter Raising Simulator | older | $9.99 | 103 64% | 3.1k | $31k (exactly $30,869) | Studio Namaapa |
 | Glamour Kaleidoscope | $7.99 | 90 75% | 2.7k | $22k (exactly $21,573) | Cup Dragon | |
 | Naughty Store Manager | $11.99 | 27 33% | 810 | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | eroverse | |
 | Wide Slash Hero | $13.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $5.9k (exactly $5,876) | CelBranch | |
 | Project: Mirror 2 | $4.99 | 25 44% | 750 | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) | 430Games | |
 | Sweet Whiskers: Cozy Kitty Stories | $1.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $955 (exactly $955) | Anime Aqua Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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