Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim JRPG?

JRPG + Life Sim

Of 41 developers who shipped a Life Sim JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1705 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 71 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $3.8k → $125k → $49k → $8.8k → $56k → $26k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $11k (exactly $10,553)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $78,008)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 107
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 19,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
Potion Permit older $19.99 4,358 78% 131k $2.6M (exactly $2,613,493) MassHive Media
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Princess Maker 2 Refine older $19.99 1,610 93% 48k $966k (exactly $965,517) CFK Co., Ltd.
SunnySide older $19.99 913 67% 27k $548k (exactly $547,526) Aftabi Games
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
TRATRITLE older $19.99 796 93% 24k $477k (exactly $477,361) INAZUMA GAMES
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH
Your Mom $1.99 4,157 95% 125k $248k (exactly $248,173) Mom Game
Love n Life: Happy Student $9.99 719 81% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Reborn Entertainment
Dragon Song Tavern: Cozy & Adventurous $19.90 274 71% 8.2k $164k (exactly $163,578) Etherous Games Limited
Immoral-Bathhouse $8.99 476 80% 14k $128k (exactly $128,377) 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.