Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Interactive Fiction

Of 36 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1913 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 66 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 66 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.3k → $3.8k → $1.5k → $9.0k → $22k → $2.4k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 95
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Visual Novel, Party-Based RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $57.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $57.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 11,872 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki older $49.99 1,316 91% 39k $2.0M (exactly $1,973,605) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki Ⅱ -CRIMSON SiN- older $59.99 789 76% 24k $1.4M (exactly $1,419,963) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- $57.99 765 77% 23k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) Nihon Falcom
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
King Of The Castle older $9.99 1,403 90% 42k $420k (exactly $420,479) Tributary Games
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom
Blades of Jianghu: Ballad of Wind and Dust older $18.99 472 83% 14k $269k (exactly $268,898) 永恆艾莉絲工坊
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Heroines of Swords & Spells 2 $9.99 262 93% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Kirillkrm
Vampire Syndicate: Gangs of MoonFall · EA $19.99 111 71% 3.3k $67k (exactly $66,567) A Memory of Eternity
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
UltraGirl Alters $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) FutureInvention
Personality Excretion Hero Silvy's Rebirth $11.99 40 87% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,388) Circle Fairy Flower, サークル☆フェアリーフラワー

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.