Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Logic game?

Logic + Interactive Fiction

Of 110 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×9.1 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×1433 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 162 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 162 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.7k → $1.0k → $1.3k → $1.4k → $1.2k → $1.4k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 5% $171k (exactly $170,545)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 281
Announced 162
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Logic, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Investigation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 16,683 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Trials of Innocence $16.99 1,308 91% 39k $667k (exactly $666,688) 猫龙游戏
Murder by Numbers older $14.99 1,152 85% 35k $518k (exactly $518,054) Mediatonic
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Confidential Killings - A Detective Game $14.99 716 76% 21k $322k (exactly $321,985) BRANE, Lorenzo Boni
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Mind Diver $17.99 316 94% 9.5k $171k (exactly $170,545) Indoor Sunglasses
Monolith older $14.99 323 74% 9.7k $145k (exactly $145,253) Animation Arts
Little Problems: A Cozy Detective Game $9.99 449 90% 13k $135k (exactly $134,565) Posh Cat Studios
Gensokyo:Presumption of Guilt~Pansies Before Dawn $14.99 250 92% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) 戏壤游戏(Xirang Games)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.