Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Sokoban?

Sokoban + Incremental

Only 5 developers shipped an Incremental Sokoban in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mate'Morphosis, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $150 against a market of $120. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 8 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sokoban + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $449 (exactly $449)
Top 5% $4.4k (exactly $4,395)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 27
Announced 8
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Sokoban, Incremental
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $1.99 or above; the middle game at $1.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,131 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $150, 1 in 4 over $440, 1 in 20 over $4.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Akin older $4.99 498 86% 15k $75k (exactly $74,551) ThinkOfGames
Seek Girl Ⅶ older $1.99 1,197 70% 36k $71k (exactly $71,461) DSGame
Seek Girl Ⅵ older $1.99 1,099 77% 33k $66k (exactly $65,610) DSGame
Fluffy Cubed older $1.99 97 93% 2.9k $5.8k (exactly $5,791) Naoka Games
Mate'Morphosis $2.99 49 95% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,395) WiseMonkeES, Bruder Studio
Dungeon Slime 2: Puzzle in the Dark Forest older $1.99 45 97% 1.4k $2.7k (exactly $2,686) Daniel Siqueira Abdelnur
Hentai ASMR older $1.99 35 60% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) Boom Team
Puzzle Light: Slide older $0.99 39 92% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Waidy Andrade
Chesskoban - Chess Puzzles older $0.99 39 94% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Heimo Game Studio
Chesskoban Bishop older $0.99 33 100% 990 $980 (exactly $980) Heimo Game Studio
Cat Block - Sliding Puzzle $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) ZT-Studio
GridFiller $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) AlchemistGame
Weapon Rearing $0.99 4 0% 120 $119 (exactly $119) JIYUTORISEI
CTR $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Pisuke

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.