Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental JRPG?

JRPG + Incremental

Of 35 developers who shipped an Incremental JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×321 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $3.8k → $3.0k → $3.3k → $8.4k → $2.5k → $3.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,850)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $201,466)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 123
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Idler, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 4,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Touhou Mystia's Izakaya 2021 · $5.3M Summer Clover 2024 · $4.9M Dragon Cliff 2018 · $2.3M Peeping Dorm Manager 2023 · $2.0M Crusaders Quest : Hero Town 2026 · $538k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Crusaders Quest : Hero Town $6.99 2,564 76% 77k $538k (exactly $537,671) CQ LABS
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. older $18.99 320 74% 9.6k $182k (exactly $182,304) Kokutou Umeboshi
Furry Love older $0.99 4,504 87% 135k $134k (exactly $133,769) Red Six Development
MASSAGE MY EX-BULLY $6.99 519 70% 16k $109k (exactly $108,834) Warumiyo
Whimsy Bake＆Craft $7.99 357 64% 11k $86k (exactly $85,573) MOON SCAPE
The Daily Life of Serving Doll $6.99 254 81% 7.6k $53k (exactly $53,264) 桃山プロダクション
Book of Fei $2.99 347 93% 10k $31k (exactly $31,126) TAO Studio
The Naughty Vampire and the Moaning Forest $5.99 157 71% 4.7k $28k (exactly $28,213) marron☆marron
LAST HAREM $16.99 49 57% 1.5k $25k (exactly $24,975) Kokudo Studio
Boxed Girl $4.99 166 72% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,850) エデン&イブ
Slay All Bosses: Idle $4.99 84 60% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) Memoria Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.