Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Vehicular Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vehicular Combat Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Vehicular Combat

Only 19 developers shipped a Vehicular Combat Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, IRON REBELLION, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×386 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 43 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Vehicular Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $38k → $32k → $115k → $3.6k → $4.1k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Vehicular Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,768)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 57
Announced 43
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Vehicular Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Tactical
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Warbox · EA older $9.99 3,430 55% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,027,971) Mantaliss
ΔV: Rings of Saturn older $9.99 2,880 93% 86k $863k (exactly $863,136) Kodera Software
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Touge Shakai · EA older $14.99 1,107 85% 33k $498k (exactly $497,818) Raiyon Studios Pte Ltd
Project Gunship · EA older $14.99 836 75% 25k $376k (exactly $375,949) Sklorite Studios LLC
Combat Air Patrol 2: Military Flight Simulator · EA older $29.99 356 47% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Sim155 Limited
Big Rigs: Over the Road Racing $5.99 640 79% 19k $115k (exactly $115,008) Stellar Stone
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
In The Black · EA $19.99 84 72% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Impeller Studios
PATLABOR the Case Files $34.99 47 65% 1.4k $49k (exactly $49,336) Chime
Baking Bad · EA $10.99 123 32% 3.7k $41k (exactly $40,553) FunkyArmor
Jeepney Simulator 2 $8.99 119 91% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) Spacezero Interactive
Periapsis: Eclipse · EA $14.99 53 71% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Skytrellis Games
Agony Increment $7.99 17 100% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Parish Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.