Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Transportation

Of 61 developers who shipped a Transportation Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×13 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2425 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 89 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 89 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $22k → $18k → $32k → $20k → $6.8k → $19k (still earning) → $417k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Median $19k (exactly $19,190)
Top 25% $284k (exactly $283,803)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 163
Announced 89
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Transportation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automobile Sim, Driving
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 51,958 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.7k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.7k. 5 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Construction Simulator older $24.99 10,606 82% 318k $8.0M (exactly $7,951,318) weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車! · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
Ambulance Life: A Paramedic Simulator $29.99 993 50% 30k $893k (exactly $893,402) Aesir Interactive
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.