Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Third-Person Shooter

Of 24 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×185 the market median. Revenue is up 690% on the market; 67 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 690% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.3k → $5.3k → $3.8k → $1.2k → $59 → $4.0k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,445)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $277k (exactly $277,389)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 60
Announced 67
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 690% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Third-Person Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Character Customization
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 12,158 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Zero Hour older $9.99 28,570 78% 857k $8.6M (exactly $8,562,429) AttritoM7 Productions
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Into The Flames older $19.99 1,548 80% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Fully Involved Game Studios
Emergency Call - The Firefighting Simulation 3 · EA $24.99 370 71% 11k $277k (exactly $277,389) Crenetic GmbH Studios
Warbox Sandbox older $6.99 279 78% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,506) Madar Games
PATLABOR the Case Files $34.99 47 65% 1.4k $49k (exactly $49,336) Chime
Worlds older $9.99 71 85% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Curious Planet
Kid Pilot VR older $19.99 26 69% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Flamingo Simulation Systems
Sex Shop Simulator: Sinful Girls $7.99 57 43% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Bits, Bytes & Sins
Casino Boss Simulator $4.99 69 56% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Nons Games
The Core · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Electric Machine Games
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
Organic Burger Simulator · EA $14.99 12 58% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Mehmet Bilici, Hüseyin Doğan
Hovercrafts x Nihilism $6.00 22 86% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,960) soomr
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.