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Should I ship a Swordplay Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Swordplay
Only 15 developers shipped a Swordplay Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grimlord, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×557 the market median. Revenue is up 2365% on the market; 35 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,198) |
| Top 25% | $299k (exactly $299,400) |
| Top 5% | $834k (exactly $834,022) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2365% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim, Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,344 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic 2006 · $2.8M 
Grimlord 2024 · $834k 
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator 2026 · EA · $459k 
Medieval Blacksmith 2025 · $354k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | Dark Messiah of Might & Magic | older | $9.99 | 9,331 89% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) | Arkane Studios |
| | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
| | Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator | · EA | $24.99 | 612 81% | 18k | $459k (exactly $458,816) | Contec Games |
| | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
 | Ironsmith Medieval Simulator | older | $9.99 | 214 26% | 6.4k | $64k (exactly $64,136) | The EpicLore |
 | Sea Dogs | older | $11.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $58k (exactly $58,271) | Akella |
 | Sail | · EA older | $14.99 | 128 72% | 3.8k | $58k (exactly $57,562) | Red Team Interactive Inc., Continuum XR |
 | Fruit Ninja VR 2 | older | $24.99 | 74 75% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $55,478) | Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd |
 | Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok | · EA | $29.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $28k (exactly $27,891) | BlackTale Games |
 | The Story Page | · EA | $7.99 | 103 78% | 3.1k | $25k (exactly $24,689) | SPR-Games |
 | Ladies, Don’t Tempt My Immortality | $10.99 | 57 89% | 1.7k | $19k (exactly $18,793) | 蒸汽满满工作室 | |
 | Sportvida CyberDash | $19.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $4.2k (exactly $4,198) | ible Sportvida | |
 | The Last Nordic Tribe | $5.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $2.0k (exactly $1,977) | Never Say Never | |
 | TrainingTiles | $9.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | HumanBionics, Jhohan Hernandez |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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