Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Strategy RPG

Of 88 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 164 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×441 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 164 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 164 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $58k → $10k → $6.7k → $1.6k → $2.0k → $6.6k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,308)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,784)
Top 5% $661k (exactly $661,235)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 186
Announced 164
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 35,574 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 164 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition older $14.99 3,579 55% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,609,476) Klabater
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.