Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Space

Of 105 developers who shipped a Space Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×174 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 206 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 206 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $16k → $3.2k → $900 → $1.5k → $3.6k → $598 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,101)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,140)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 289
Announced 206
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 11,553 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Prey older $29.99 37,759 90% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,971,772) Arkane Studios
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
System Shock older $39.99 9,786 90% 294k $12M (exactly $11,740,264) Nightdive Studios
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Skin Deep $19.99 1,672 94% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698) Blendo Games
Breathedge 2 · EA $19.99 1,491 86% 45k $894k (exactly $894,153) RedRuins Softworks
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev
Ambrosia Sky $24.99 267 89% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive
Honeycomb: The World Beyond $29.99 138 65% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Frozen Way
PASSIONERS $9.99 285 62% 8.6k $85k (exactly $85,414) CryoDreams Interactive
Dead Reckoning: The Long Drift · EA $14.99 174 83% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Garan Lorn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.