Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Runner

Of 27 developers who shipped a Runner Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. Revenue is down 35% on the market, with 21 games announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.3k → $4.8k → $802 → $60 → $958 → $0 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 5% $7.0k (exactly $6,997)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 78
Announced 21
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Action, Racing
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Comedy, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 217 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $6.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
[Chilla's Art] Hanako | 花子さん older $7.99 229 75% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) Chilla's Art
Packing House · EA older $9.99 73 68% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) SmartLife, Roman Studio
Space Ribbon - Slipstream to the Extreme older $3.99 71 57% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Onteca Ltd
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Drunk Builder Simulator $2.99 78 39% 2.3k $7.0k (exactly $6,997) Viper
Guilty Me older $5.99 38 71% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) HKGamesStudio
Drunken way to Home older $3.99 53 84% 1.6k $6.3k (exactly $6,344) Yamauchi_games
TENSEI older $2.99 54 96% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) Project Pegasus
北城捷運糾察隊(Northern City Metro Patrol) $3.00 49 83% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,410) HoneyJamStudio
Sportvida CyberDash $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ible Sportvida
Easy Running $8.99 12 83% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) LUO WENJUN
Slim Girl $9.99 10 40% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Fat Tiger
永夜镇EternalNightTown $8.99 11 54% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) 阁楼实验室
Heroin Hero $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) JPGames
UNDERGROUND $1.99 17 58% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) UncleScrooge
Fear Simulator VR $3.99 8 25% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Overbuilt S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.