Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Real Time Tactics

Of 67 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 112 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 112 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $898 → $11k → $839 → $718 → $120 → $5.0k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,772)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,929)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 170
Announced 112
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Real Time Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 4,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Awakening older $59.99 2,320 74% 70k $4.2M (exactly $4,175,304) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rail Route older $24.99 2,400 88% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,799,280) Bitrich.info
Fisher Online older $13.99 4,199 81% 126k $1.8M (exactly $1,762,320) R-Age LLC
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence - Ascension older $59.99 814 73% 24k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,956) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Taishi older $59.99 804 51% 24k $1.4M (exactly $1,446,959) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence older $59.99 571 83% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,027,629) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Barely Working · EA $14.99 156 91% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Deep Games LLC
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.