Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + PvP

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + PvP

Of 92 developers who shipped a PvP Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1066 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 186 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 186 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + PvP
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $51k → $5.2k → $28k → $7.5k → $3.8k → $4.8k (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + PvP: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,433)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,580)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 280
Announced 186
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Co-op, Management
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 91,326 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Squad 2020 · $217M NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
DEATH NOTE Killer Within $9.99 2,324 84% 70k $697k (exactly $696,503) Grounding Inc.
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.