Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Party-Based RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party-Based RPG Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Party-Based RPG

Only 16 developers shipped a Party-Based RPG Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2529 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 34 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Party-Based RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $4.8k → $10k → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Party-Based RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,136)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 34
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 8,862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
FLAM EVAW $9.99 1,378 95% 41k $413k (exactly $412,987) 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司
Brigand: Oaxaca older $9.99 551 94% 17k $165k (exactly $165,135) Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Sof… (Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Software)
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
The Wolf older $9.99 186 68% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) Good Luck Games
心动满屋 older $3.99 218 75% 6.5k $26k (exactly $26,095) 成都萌创科技有限公司
三国英雄列传 (Legendary Heros in the Three Kingdoms) older $8.99 50 70% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,485) Flying Star Games
GhostCatcher · EA $8.99 45 51% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) SilverLuna Rift
Animal Simulator $8.99 39 30% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Imperian Online - Core
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works
Guardian's Guide $19.99 8 62% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Allugic LLC
Guild & Gals $6.99 11 72% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Tuomo Laine
Jerico Proxyma - Zsivanyur $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Steel Widow Klan
Stranded Island $7.99 3 0% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Circlesgames, Chukwuemeka igbokwe azogu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.