Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Open World
Should I ship an Immersive Sim Open World game?
Immersive Sim + Open World
Of 329 developers who shipped an Immersive Sim Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 746 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×5.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4619 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 746 games are announced against 187 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,619) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.6k (exactly $8,630) |
| Top 25% | $135k (exactly $134,796) |
| Top 5% | $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 329 |
| Released games | 950 |
| Announced | 746 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim, Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Sandbox
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 278,900 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 6 in 10 of the 185 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 746 games are announced against 187 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M 
Sons Of The Forest 2024 · $256M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Euro Truck Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 756,984 97% | 23M | $454M (exactly $453,963,305) | SCS Software |
| | Sons Of The Forest | older | $29.99 | 284,572 88% | 8.5M | $256M (exactly $256,029,428) | Endnight Games Ltd |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | theHunter: Call of the Wild™ | older | $19.99 | 170,472 89% | 5.1M | $102M (exactly $102,232,058) | Expansive Worlds |
 | American Truck Simulator | older | $19.99 | 165,692 97% | 5.0M | $99M (exactly $99,365,492) | SCS Software |
 | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
 | No Rest for the Wicked | · EA older | $39.99 | 66,102 80% | 2.0M | $79M (exactly $79,302,569) | Moon Studios GmbH |
 | HITMAN World of Assassination | older | $29.99 | 58,655 87% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $52,771,904) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | The Planet Crafter | older | $23.99 | 68,855 96% | 2.1M | $50M (exactly $49,554,944) | Miju Games |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | Paralives | · EA | $39.99 | 20,123 89% | 604k | $24M (exactly $24,141,563) | Alex Massé and team |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Hello Kitty Island Adventure | $39.99 | 9,637 93% | 289k | $12M (exactly $11,561,509) | Sunblink | |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Big Ambitions | $25.99 | 14,003 92% | 420k | $11M (exactly $10,918,139) | Hovgaard Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.