Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Mystery Dungeon

Only 19 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Runehaven, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 330% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $4.9k → $150 → $30 → $6.5k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $35,664)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 53
Announced 29
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 291 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Sex with Succubus ❤️‍🔥 older $9.99 176 50% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) Octo Games
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
The Lustful Inn of Female Adventurers $9.99 81 76% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) StudioVR
FORGE SIMULATOR older $10.99 56 89% 1.7k $18k (exactly $18,463) GreenOnionGames
CRYODEATH VR older $24.99 21 85% 630 $16k (exactly $15,744) Kerag Elisaar
Endless Suburbia older $4.99 91 64% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) Horrid Vision LLC
Stocksynd House older $7.99 53 83% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,704) CyberFlux Games, Gabro Media
ACCIDENTALLY $12.99 30 60% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) M&K WORKS
Deep Despair 2 older $2.99 88 73% 2.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,894) BekkerDev Studio
Vastophobia · EA $7.99 27 92% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Beyond reason Games
Shadow of the Night $12.99 6 50% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Uğur ÇELİK
We're Here, Papa $4.99 14 64% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) EXLIX
Sense of Darkness $4.99 5 60% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Iurii Coseacov
Rotfang: The House $3.00 4 0% 120 $360 (exactly $360) Horrid Vision LLC
Schizophrenia: The Last Shift $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Indevelopment Productions
Kola Аbyss $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) TwoDogs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.