Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Multiple Endings

Of 411 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 676 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×368 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 676 games are announced against 256 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 676 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 411
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $10k → $22k → $8.1k → $5.6k → $4.6k → $5.1k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 411
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,668)
Top 5% $551k (exactly $550,549)
Developers, 2 yr 411
Released games 903
Announced 676
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Multiple Endings; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 199,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 215 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 676 games are announced against 256 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon 2025 · $45M Contraband Police 2023 · $22M Dishonored 2012 · $20M Love Is All Around 2023 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
Weird West: Definitive Edition older $39.99 3,962 77% 119k $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) WolfEye Studios
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.