Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Motorbike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motorbike Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Motorbike

Only 11 developers shipped a Motorbike Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×8.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $16k against a market of $1.5k. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 10.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 17 announced, ×8.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Motorbike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $3.5k → $16k
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Motorbike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $16k (exactly $16,195)
Top 25% $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 29
Announced 17
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Motorbike
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 12,098 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $1.5M, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Finnish Cottage Simulator · EA $14.99 3,396 93% 102k $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181) RANELA GAMES
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Model Builder: Complete Edition older $19.99 1,058 74% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) Moonlit S.A.
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Hell Road VR older $19.99 60 85% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Travolab Replay
Hazeron Starship older $19.99 55 70% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Hazeron Freehold LLC
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
VRider SBK™ $29.99 18 55% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Funny Tales
Express Rider Simulator · EA $8.99 46 65% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,406) HatinBaba Game Studios
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Man For Takeaway $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) zjf
Trade Tycoon Life Simulator · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Reme Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.