Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Mining

Of 28 developers who shipped a Mining Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×22 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×428 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.1k → $22k → $44k → $5.2k → $53k → $81k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $33k (exactly $32,526)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $81,219)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,446)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 55
Announced 45
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Mining; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 5,682 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
Dinosaur Fossil Hunter older $19.99 820 77% 25k $492k (exactly $491,754) ▲ Pyramid Games
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Space Colony: Steam Edition older $14.99 564 78% 17k $254k (exactly $253,631) Firefly Studios
Dwarfs!? older $9.99 644 79% 19k $193k (exactly $193,007) Power of 2
Smash Hit Museum $6.99 507 85% 15k $106k (exactly $106,318) InIt Games
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Treasure Beach $9.99 271 81% 8.1k $81k (exactly $81,219) Rogue Duck Interactive
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Swarmdustry · EA $29.99 66 90% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Mitchy Studios
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.