Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Loot

Of 22 developers who shipped a Loot Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×15 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×321 the market median. Revenue is up 3435% on the market; 59 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 3435% on the market, 59 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $127k → $3.9k → $50k → $1.8k → $2.1k → $117k → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Median $23k (exactly $22,661)
Top 25% $106k (exactly $106,318)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $480,280)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 46
Announced 59
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3435% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Co-op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 9,169 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Denizen · EA older $19.99 886 72% 27k $531k (exactly $531,334) Departure Interactive
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Apocalyptic Vibes older $19.99 309 73% 9.3k $185k (exactly $185,307) Amanito Computing
Thick As Thieves $4.99 1,106 65% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) OtherSide Entertainment
Dishwashing Simulator older $9.99 507 86% 15k $152k (exactly $151,948) Frinky, Frosty
Gone Rogue older $14.99 282 87% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) AskaLot Games
Midnight Heist $9.99 389 92% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) MediaTale
Smash Hit Museum $6.99 507 85% 15k $106k (exactly $106,318) InIt Games
Treasure Beach $9.99 271 81% 8.1k $81k (exactly $81,219) Rogue Duck Interactive
Eggstreme Farming $6.99 169 73% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) Sagitta Studios
Art Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 79 91% 2.4k $31k (exactly $30,786) Lovheim Studios
WHERE the F$CK is my BITCOIN ⁉️ $6.99 113 61% 3.4k $24k (exactly $23,696) Bin Juice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.