Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Local Multiplayer

Of 36 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×19212 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 28 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $58k → $1.9k → $89k → $12k → $19k → $6.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,797)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,160)
Top 5% $29M (exactly $28,779,243)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 115
Announced 28
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Local Multiplayer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sports, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 59,476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M Undisputed 2024 · $29M PowerWash Simulator 2 2025 · $8.2M Barony 2015 · $7.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
PowerWash Simulator 2 $24.99 10,939 91% 328k $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968) FuturLab
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Feed the Cups · EA older $15.99 4,708 72% 141k $2.3M (exactly $2,258,428) Vambear Games
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
PBA Pro Bowling 2026 $39.99 412 91% 12k $494k (exactly $494,276) FarSight Studios
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.